Soak Up the sun...maybe...possibly?

So I am looking at a weather map from Environment Canada and I am supposed to answer 2 questions. So here we go. The probability that EC got the forecast right for Kingston area right is between 50 and 55% accuracy for them getting the temperature correct for April. It's just chance. Do they really know? They say they do, but really you and i could probably predict the temperature just by observing for a week. Ok, so the area where environment Canada has gotten their predictions right is central Ontario because The percentage is 70-75% accurate. But again, who's to say they just said, oh well we've been right for the past few months, I think we're good for this month too. Let's keep our streak of luck up. Of course I would not respond like that to a literacy test, but on my blog, I like to have more freedom of personal expression etc.